Jayson Stark, one of my favorite baseball writers (even if his rep is slightly tarnished due to copious predictions he made in 2000-01 that the Phillies would be annual contenders over the next several [now last several] years), chimes in with a spot-on analysis of the Minnesota Twins' biggest decision of the moment: what to do with ace Johan Santana?
Johan Santana.
Santana is signed through next season, but his asking price will skyrocket beyond his '07 salary of $13M. He'll probably look for 7-8 years, taking him to 36 years old. And he'll most likely use Barry Zito and his gargantuan $126M, most-ever-for-a-pitcher deal with the Giants last winter as a measuring stick. Can the Twinkies afford that?
Their current dilemma with Santana, Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, pitcher Joe Nathan, and Justin Morneau reminds me a bit of Seattle in the late 1990s. They had established stars in pitcher Randy Johnson, shortstop Alex Rodriguez, and All-Star center fielder Ken Griffey, Jr., at the time on a pretty good clip at passing Hank Aaron someday for the all-time home run record. Johnson bolted after the '98 season, Griffey after '99, and A-Rod took from $252M from the Rangers after the 2000 season.
My quick prediction:
The Twins, knowing the commodity of ace pitching, sign Santana for the stars. He's just too valuable. Hunter walks this year, while the Twins bank on their new ballpark in 2010 and sign Morneau and perhaps either of the Joes, like the Mets have done with David Wright and Jose Reyes.
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